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chris@chriskolenda.com
Reducing Confirmation Bias
Discover how to improve your decision-making by reducing confirmation bias.
I was convinced that business owners would seize the opportunity to go with me to Normandy for an executive leadership retreat. These bucket-list experiences are game-changing ways to enhance your leadership. I hired a digital marketing firm whose owner loved staff rides.
I spent over $50k on videos, sales funnels, and ads. We got over 2 million views and 275,000 likes, but not a single buyer.
I was so convinced this retreat would sell itself that I neglected the fundamentals of identifying the ideal client, writing language that appealed to them, and describing how they would be better off. What seemed obvious to me was not so evident to my ideal clients.
What went wrong? Confirmation bias is the tendency to emphasize data confirming your point of view and dismissing contrary information. I had confirmation bias and paid a stiff price for it.
I’m not alone, of course. According to The Wall Street Journal, President Biden, egged on by his inner circle, thinks he could have won the 2024 election and served a full second term. Blockbuster dismissed mail-order videos and streaming. Kodak punted on digital photography. Robert E. Lee ordered the ill-fated Pickett’s charge at Gettysburg.
Internal Viewpoint Diversity, Bold External Perspectives, and Intense Psychological Confidence
One of the most potent ways to improve your decision-making is to reduce unforced errors. You do so by fostering internal viewpoint diversity, bold external perspectives, and internal psychological confidence.
Internal viewpoint diversity, which comes from people having different cognitive strengths and relevant experiences, enhances creativity and reduces the likelihood of groupthink. External perspectives from trusted advisers, customers, and experts help you challenge internal biases and uncover blind spots. Psychological confidence is the willingness to disagree agreeably without fear of retribution.
Missing one of these elements increases the risk of unforced errors.
Executives entrenched in the film business dominated Kodak’s leadership team. The lack of viewpoint diversity led them to the conclusion that digital photography was only a niche market. They missed the digital boom.
Blockbuster failed to gain external perspectives, so they underestimated people’s growing preferences for convenience and on-demand services. Netflix put them out of business.
Poor psychological confidence is at the heart of Boeing’s crisis. Leaders reportedly dismissed employees’ safety concerns while emphasizing production schedules and cost efficiencies. Highly publicized problems with the 737-MAX and soddy production have damaged the company.
Lee’s overconfidence at Gettysburg resulted from the absence of all three elements. Lee’s subordinates held him in such awe that they were unwilling to question his judgment. Longstreet was the lone general who disagreed with him. Lee dismissed his concerns when no one else backed them. He had no external perspective, especially since Confederate Jefferson Davis stopped questioning Lee’s decisions.
Had Lee recognized the risk of confirmation bias, he could have encouraged his generals to express fresh ideas and wargame alternatives. The results might have prevented the battle altogether and would have uncovered the faulty assumptions unlying Pickett’s charge.
When you come with me to Gettysburg and stare across the mile of open ground where Pickett’s charge took place, a potent visual image of confirmation bias sears into your mind. It reminds you to ensure that internal viewpoint diversity, bold external perspectives, and intense psychological confidence inform your decisions.
Imagine the increase in profitability when you reduce the unforced error tax.
Would you be interested in a meaningful conversation? You and I will hop on a Zoom call. I’ll ask questions to see what I see and then share insights and ideas to help you accelerate your progress.
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