Discover how Disciplined Foresight will transform your business. 

Did you ever feel like you constantly react to events instead of shaping them?

I felt like that for the first three months of our tour in Afghanistan. We were doing plenty of big combat missions and winning each fight. The enemy’s attacks, however, kept getting larger and more sophisticated. 

Our biggest firefight on July 27, 2007, resulted in Tom Bostick and Ryan Frische being killed and scores wounded. The enemy suffered far higher casualties, but their recruiting pool seemed endless. We were winning battles, but losing the war.

We had to adapt. Fixating on the enemy played into our opponent’s hands. I felt I was in perpetual crisis management. You cannot leap forward when you are on your heels. 

What Is Disciplined Foresight?

Disciplined Foresight is the intentional, structured, and principled way of anticipating the future so you can act with clarity and confidence—especially in uncertainty and complexity.

Building Disciplined Foresight began with pattern recognition. The patterns showed us that the enemy were locals, not foreign fighters from Pakistan, as we believed. 95% of the people we thought we were helping were trying to kill us.  

Pattern recognition helped us go from downstream (reactive) to upstream (anticipatory) thinking. 

The enemy could afford to lose fighters, but they could not afford to lose popular support. Building trusting relationships with community leaders would take time, but would turn the tables in our favor.

Finally, we needed a simple strategy to put theory into practice, something that put 800 paratroopers spread across seven outposts in an area the size of Rhode Island on the same page.

Six months later, the commander of the largest enemy force signed an agreement with the elders to stop fighting. 

How to Apply Disciplined Foresight and Its Core Habits to Your Business

Pattern Recognition: To gain a strategic edge, you must grasp reality.

How skillfully do you detect what’s really going on?

Red: We react to symptoms and guess at causes.

Green: We quickly diagnose and act on causes. 

Do you have visual models that help you recognize patterns?

Upstream Thinking: To create the future, you must promote desired actions.

How ferociously are you shaping events?

Red: We are in problem-solving mode.

Green: We envision and exploit opportunities.

What is your process for getting ahead of events?

Simple Strategies: To blaze through turbulence, you must create leverage.

How relentlessly do you create focus and momentum?

Red: We do too much, which leads to confusion.

Green: Our flywheel turns on its own power.

Client Success 

One of my manufacturing clients started applying the pattern recognition tools we developed to improve their profitability. They noted they were losing money on some of their largest clients who required highly customized jobs, which increased waste and rework. 

The sales team focused on these clients because they offered expansion opportunities and were easier to acquire than new business. The sales team got the bonuses, the client was happy, but the company was going bankrupt.

The company defined its product standards and paid top bonuses for sales that met the criteria. Anything outside the standards needed senior leader approval. Having clear standards made discussing the requirements with their biggest clients easier, many of whom agreed to modify their requirements or pay a higher price. 

Strategy Call

What would getting to green Pattern Recognition, Upstream Thinking, and Simple Strategies do for your business? Let’s have a strategy call to outline a game plan that works for you.